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10
Sep

Project Dunbar

El Salvador goes live Bitcoin became legal tender in El Salvador on Tuesday. It was not met with universal approval locally and you can understand why, a lot of people struggle with technology, and this really is a quantum leap for some of them. I cannot emphasise enough how important it is for the IMF

03
Sep

Simple is best

Investment strategy As a new fund manager (not yet four years old), it is a learning curve. Perhaps the most surprising thing we have encountered across the industry is the amount of time that goes into number crunching and comparison to benchmarks and “consensus views”. Consensus seems to be an important thing that people look

20
Aug

Book Week

It’s the future you see Book week this week. Given the amount of airtime being given to virtual worlds and what happens as the world goes increasingly digital, I thought it might be fun to have a look at the best books on this very topic. Read them and make your own mind up (maybe not the

13
Aug

Dear Hacker……

IT Skill The pandemic has revealed something that we knew but didn’t fully appreciate. The general level of IT skill in the workforce is appalling. Technology moves fast but almost nobody moves with it, so very quickly we are left behind. One of the first programs I ever used when I got a job was Microsoft Excel.

06
Aug

Rotten Apple

Denominator Here’s an idea for you. The NAB has published house price data showing an annual increase of 21.6%. That’s 1.6% per month. The average price of a residential property in New South Wales is now $1m (higher in Sydney). Property prices are increasing at about $16,000 per month. The average salary in NSW is

23
Jul

The network grows, the billionaire blows

User Growth If the bitcoin price is continuing to disappoint short term participants, they should perhaps look to user adoption for comfort. In these log charts (from woobull.com) we can see the start of the previous bear markets in 2011, 2014 and 2018. The pattern this time is different. User growth is going absolutely parabolic.

16
Jul

We did nothing. It’s a triumph.

Overreach There were two instances of institutional overreach this week (more later on the second).  The first was the G20, who, at the suggestion of the Americans, have “agreed” that there should be a global minimum tax rate of 15% on companies. Firstly, this is strange because no G20 country has a tax rate that

15
Jul

The Digital Corporation

It’s difficult You will have picked up over the years that people involved in bitcoin are rather anti-government. The source of this really goes to the original design of the network which anticipated that one day (or every day) governments would try to undermine bitcoin to ensure the survival of their own currencies. It was a

02
Jul

Half Time

Half Time After a disastrous first half for us with the sky falling in and all doomsayers fully validated. The results are now in. Once again. Focus on the long-term macro picture and think in four-year cycles. The lightning network Going back some years now, 2017 in fact, the Lightning network launched. Blockchains themselves are

18
Jun

G7

Reminder A gentle reminder from Morgan Stanley about where we stand in the current scheme of things. We could perhaps also include the bond market on this chart as well, but ultimately the global M2 money supply is a reasonable long term target for bitcoin. M2 is a measure of the money supply that includes cash,