listedreserve – ListedReserve

Wrong

Wrong For a change of scenery let’s try some arguments about why our macro-thesis might be wrong. Every week we bang the same drum, well it’s time for a new tune to see how convincing it is. Interest rates Let’s start with interest rates and the 700 year chart below. There is a clearly downward

18
Sep

I’ll wear cashmere and you’ll eat cake

Debt works You might look around and wonder. I do. Here is Australian retail store Harvey Norman with their latest offer. The offer has some interesting components: No interest for five years. Quite compelling, except that most things Harvey Norman sells will be obsolete in that time. The gift card is worth 5% if you

10
Sep

It’s a Bubble

Bitcoin price falls Cognitive dissonance Thinking one thing, behaving differently, getting stressed as a result I accept and have accepted since I first discovered it, that bitcoin could go to zero. I remind every investor of that possibility. I believe the possibility recedes with time, particularly as the code base ossifies, but it exists as

04
Sep

Reserve Bank ends compound interest

The Reserve Bank this week released their 2020/21 Annual Plan: The Governor confirms the Bank’s continuing commitment to achieving consumer price inflation between 2 and 3 per cent, on average, over time, consistent with its duties under the Reserve Bank Act 1959. Achieving the inflation target preserves the value of money and facilitates strong and sustainable growth in

28
Aug

Jackson Hole

Jackson Hole When is a summit not a summit? I would say, when it’s just a phone call. That’s too hard for our central bankers and not serious or important enough, so they are pretending to go to the Jackson Hole Summit this year by calling it the “Jackson Hole Summit”. In fact, nobody is

20
Aug

A special anniversary

August 15th Last Saturday we reached the 49th anniversary of the collapse of the Bretton Woods monetary system. It was on August 15th 1971 that Richard Nixon confirmed he was “temporarily” closing the gold redemption window. Without the formal anchor of a scarce resource, debt and inflation have run wild since then with the following

13
Aug

The confidence game

The confidence game “We have every confidence in the ability of [person about to be sacked]” It happens all the time, particularly in sport. Confidence needs to be reinforced which means, it’s gone. Fiat currency is a confidence game too. You cannot redeem it for gold any longer and when confidence goes, the stampede for

06
Aug

Death or Glory

Q2 2020 You wont forget Q2 2020 for the rest of your life. For many businesses it was hard, for some it was the end. For others, like Square in the US, it will be remembered as a break out quarter. Their bitcoin sales increased to $875m in Q2, up 185%. Bitcoin miners mined $1bn

30
Jul

Your clever friend

Your clever friend I hear about your clever friend a lot. He (and it is always he) has a lot to say about bitcoin. In general he is highly educated, normally at a cost of more than $150,000 for the many letters appending his name. He has a highly paid job in an unspecified low

24
Jul

You are being primed to get poorer

In December last year we pointed out an obscure speech by a Federal Reserve governor and speculated that they were testing the water on a higher inflation policy. It was the first drip feed that the US inflation target will exceed 2%. The governor in question, Lael Brainard, said the Fed might target an average

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