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13
Aug

Dear Hacker……

IT Skill The pandemic has revealed something that we knew but didn’t fully appreciate. The general level of IT skill in the workforce is appalling. Technology moves fast but almost nobody moves with it, so very quickly we are left behind. One of the first programs I ever used when I got a job was Microsoft Excel.

06
Aug

Rotten Apple

Denominator Here’s an idea for you. The NAB has published house price data showing an annual increase of 21.6%. That’s 1.6% per month. The average price of a residential property in New South Wales is now $1m (higher in Sydney). Property prices are increasing at about $16,000 per month. The average salary in NSW is

23
Jul

The network grows, the billionaire blows

User Growth If the bitcoin price is continuing to disappoint short term participants, they should perhaps look to user adoption for comfort. In these log charts (from woobull.com) we can see the start of the previous bear markets in 2011, 2014 and 2018. The pattern this time is different. User growth is going absolutely parabolic.

16
Jul

We did nothing. It’s a triumph.

Overreach There were two instances of institutional overreach this week (more later on the second).  The first was the G20, who, at the suggestion of the Americans, have “agreed” that there should be a global minimum tax rate of 15% on companies. Firstly, this is strange because no G20 country has a tax rate that

02
Jul

Half Time

Half Time After a disastrous first half for us with the sky falling in and all doomsayers fully validated. The results are now in. Once again. Focus on the long-term macro picture and think in four-year cycles. The lightning network Going back some years now, 2017 in fact, the Lightning network launched. Blockchains themselves are

18
Jun

G7

Reminder A gentle reminder from Morgan Stanley about where we stand in the current scheme of things. We could perhaps also include the bond market on this chart as well, but ultimately the global M2 money supply is a reasonable long term target for bitcoin. M2 is a measure of the money supply that includes cash,

21
May

Did someone say Elon?

The wrong chart Quite the week. No need for another reminder of how frequently we have these steep pull backs, since we’ve just had one. The situation is adequately described below. For those that don’t know. The term HODL originated in 2013 after bitcoin’s price had crashed 40% to $450. A highly medicated trader typed HODL

14
May

A work of art

Elon Musk is right It makes no sense to mine bitcoin with coal. That is why almost nobody does. Coal is simply too expensive. Bitcoin miners can only operate profitably at 3 cents per kilowatt hour and less. Fully costed coal is a lot more than that, hence most bitcoin mining takes place at the bottom

07
May

Coke Heads

It was the annual gathering of Buffett sycophants last week. Tell us more Warren about how you have underperformed the market for the last 15 years etc. etc. Year after year they are asked about bitcoin and still have not come up with a coherent critique. It’s difficult to let this year’s vitriol slide though, so

30
Apr

Everything is terrible

Bitcoin has died** You didn’t really think that some computer code was going to compete to be a global asset class, did you? I mean, that was pretty stupid of you if you did. A bunch of bearded cryptography enthusiasts versus all the intellect of the world’s bankers? It was hardly a fair fight and it