Safe Haven “and so, it’s become absolutely clear that bitcoin is not a safe haven asset” I was watching Bloomberg on Monday as the Japanese market went into meltdown, completing its worst day since 1987. Some talking head (from an Australian investment firm) popped up and made the declaration about bitcoin. The only place you

Mad to quit So our prediction for a surprise July cut was wrong. “If that test is met, a reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as the next meeting in September.” The ‘test’ is of course inflation versus unemployment. The Federal Reserve, unlike the ECB, is tasked with maintaining

Nobody uses it If we were to ask people if they know about AI, they would say yes. Overwhelmingly, they have used ChatGPT, been moderately impressed, and rarely use it now. To get the best from it requires sustained effort and most people simply will not make any sort of sustained effort to learn a

The bounce What if something worse had happened? Would bitcoin rise or fall? Let us for a moment imagine the worst and some war broke out involving major world powers; does bitcoin go up or down? Wars are terrible for bonds and generally not that good for most equities. The surreptitious inflationary creep is also

Selling A significant dip in price over the last week, with Bitcoin dropping as low as $53k at one point. As we have discussed before, the Mount Gox distributions would spook the market as people who have waited a very long time for their money finally got their hands on it. Billions in bitcoin was

Chevron I confess to never having heard of the Chevron Precedent. Certainly though, as an industry, we have been held back by its consequences. The 1984 ruling gave federal agencies wide powers to interpret the law, including how they might best be implemented. Previously when challenged, Federal Agencies have simply pleaded “Chevron”. The US Supreme

This happens once Investor feedback: Let’s say you think bitcoin is money, how can you actually make money from something that is supposed to act as money? If it really is money then it should not go up or change in value really, the fact that that is happening means something is wrong. Good point.

BRICS Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The original members of the BRICS group. They first met in 2009 and frankly, for a very long time, it was a nothing-burger. On the 1st January this year, the intention was that Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iran would also join the bloc. The

VanGuess We often discuss here that nobody really knows how to specifically price assets in this sector (including us). Enter VanEck, one of the world’s largest fund managers with $100 billion in AUM. They wowed us last week with their 2030 estimates for Ethereum. Low end $360; high end $154,000. I have to say, there

Brief A necessarily brief one today, I’m afraid. Some more extensive comments on recent movements can be found in our monthly update to fund investors which went out earlier this week. 1.2 From Nikkei Asia. Several things about the headline strike me. Firstly, “child friendly policies”. I would make the case that there is simply