Winning Bigly I wrote these notes on Monday before we knew the outcome. I figured it would be easier to write about Kamala winning before she had done so.  As a reminder to myself to have a little more courage in my convictions, here they are. KAMALA That was not what we wanted. General themes

$100k In this sector, when you wish for something, or make a prediction, there is a good chance you will be slapped around the face with a rotten fish. Most readers have been on the volatile ride with us over the years and know that dropping 50% in short order, can happen, does happen and

An appeal to envy So we enter a new phase. The strategy among global central banks of insisting ‘bitcoin is a bubble that will fail’ has not worked. The ECB website is littered with attack articles going back decades. What is new this time is the basis of the argument. Author, Ulrich Bindseil is a

Bribery Election bribery is not new. In Australia marginal constituencies receive many times more Federal funding than safe seats. It’s not normally advertised though, which makes the latest effort of Kamala Harris surprising on a number of levels. It is apparent that she is struggling for votes from black men under 40. Accordingly, she has

ETF options Options on BlackRocks Bitcoin ETF IBIT are now approved. A highly volatile product on top of a highly volatile product. It took 10 years to get a simple spot ETF and 6 months to get something that must surely be orders of magnitude more risky. Pricing options correctly is hard. Doing so with

Cricket season Over the road, the cricket square has been cut. Chief among the amusements of the game is there is always a record that falls in cricket. However dull the particular encounter, something will happen. “The highest 8th wicket stand between a right and left hander in a tea-time session”.  “Most runs down the

Perception At the commencement of the internet did anyone perceive that URLs like google.com would be worth billions of dollars? To begin with google was quite straightforward; a URL and some mathematics that could search the internet. It was very difficult to anticipate at that stage what it would become. Even today, save for their

The time has come Why might the time have come? Because prices are back under control? No! because the labour market is not. The Federal Reserve is not the same as the ECB. Its mandate is twin, prices and employment. I think this critical difference is going to come to the fore over the next

Polymarket Potential investor: “just tell me one thing that has actually worked, that is a viable product, that isn’t bitcoin that’s out there right now, today”. Me: “OK. Polymarket. The largest prediction market in the world“ The styling as a ‘prediction market’ is rather cute. You can open a market on something, price your prediction

The State I have referenced this book a lot, admittedly to mixed feedback. Some of you loved it, plenty of you DNF. Personally, I think it’s aging well on multiple levels. One of which came to mind this week following a tumultuous period in the United Kingdom. One of the tenets of the book is