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04
Dec

Crash!

Crash Bitcoin has crashed by $50 billion. Actually, this headline was Friday last week and bitcoin has since recovered to be exactly where it was before it “crashed”. A good reminder though that bitcoin will, and has, dipped many times along the road. It has dropped by 85% more than 5 times since it launched

20
Nov

A very clever moron

A multi-asset portfolio As of December 2019 a balanced portfolio, based on global market capitalisation, would have looked something like this. 41% equity, 25% bonds, 20% investment grade credit and then the rest. At its current market capitalisation of $325 billion bitcoin would represent 0.24% of this portfolio. It would not show up on the

13
Nov

District 14

District 14 She did not wait long. Immediately after Biden was declared winner and having laid low for 6 months while the election battle raged, the truce ended. The Representative of the 14th New York district, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, raged against the Democrat machine. “The people who elected Biden will now be forgotten, he will swing

05
Nov

President Harris

President Harris? A few weeks back I said I marginally preferred a Biden victory from the perspective of the performance of our funds. Essentially, we are operating the funds as a hedge against the collapsing financial system and our 100% + returns in just over two years show that it is working. If our funds

30
Oct

The digital frontier

The Levels Back in August we wrote about “The Levels”. The various barriers that the bitcoin would face on its journey, one of the more significant being the US$13,800 barrier. “Again, based on long and short selling their is a great deal of potential activity at $13,800. This is roughly the 90 day average price

22
Oct

Are you paying attention?

PayPal In June this year we wrote about a niche advertisement for a role at PayPal for someone who could program in C+ and had experience in cryptography.  You might recall we speculated that PayPal would add bitcoin to its suite of products. There are 325 million active PayPal users worldwide. They aren’t all going

15
Oct

I wish I had….

Start small This is Greg Schoen, with a genuine tweet from 2011. You can look him up on Twitter @GregSchoen. Greg’s 1,700 bitcoins are now worth US$18.5million. He is very open about it in fact. I think he got a good deal. Totally untried technology which back then absolutely nobody had heard of. He had

08
Oct

Unemployment

Whispers in the wind Late last year during an obscure policy discussion in the bowels of the USA, a Federal Reserve governor raised the prospect of an ‘inflation averaging approach’. The idea being that inflation would be allowed to overshoot 2% for a period of time to bring the longer term average back in line.

01
Oct

Paul Keating

Who will win? As far as the our funds are concerned it doesn’t really matter who wins the next US election. Biden would likely outspend Trump initially, so we marginally favour him from a performance perspective. Longer term, no difference.   Whoever wins will look to pass a large and popular stimulus bill so we

25
Sep

Wrong

Wrong For a change of scenery let’s try some arguments about why our macro-thesis might be wrong. Every week we bang the same drum, well it’s time for a new tune to see how convincing it is. Interest rates Let’s start with interest rates and the 700 year chart below. There is a clearly downward