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03
Sep

Simple is best

Investment strategy As a new fund manager (not yet four years old), it is a learning curve. Perhaps the most surprising thing we have encountered across the industry is the amount of time that goes into number crunching and comparison to benchmarks and “consensus views”. Consensus seems to be an important thing that people look

13
Aug

Dear Hacker……

IT Skill The pandemic has revealed something that we knew but didn’t fully appreciate. The general level of IT skill in the workforce is appalling. Technology moves fast but almost nobody moves with it, so very quickly we are left behind. One of the first programs I ever used when I got a job was Microsoft Excel.

06
Aug

Rotten Apple

Denominator Here’s an idea for you. The NAB has published house price data showing an annual increase of 21.6%. That’s 1.6% per month. The average price of a residential property in New South Wales is now $1m (higher in Sydney). Property prices are increasing at about $16,000 per month. The average salary in NSW is

23
Jul

The network grows, the billionaire blows

User Growth If the bitcoin price is continuing to disappoint short term participants, they should perhaps look to user adoption for comfort. In these log charts (from woobull.com) we can see the start of the previous bear markets in 2011, 2014 and 2018. The pattern this time is different. User growth is going absolutely parabolic.

16
Jul

We did nothing. It’s a triumph.

Overreach There were two instances of institutional overreach this week (more later on the second).  The first was the G20, who, at the suggestion of the Americans, have “agreed” that there should be a global minimum tax rate of 15% on companies. Firstly, this is strange because no G20 country has a tax rate that

15
Jul

The Digital Corporation

It’s difficult You will have picked up over the years that people involved in bitcoin are rather anti-government. The source of this really goes to the original design of the network which anticipated that one day (or every day) governments would try to undermine bitcoin to ensure the survival of their own currencies. It was a

02
Jul

Half Time

Half Time After a disastrous first half for us with the sky falling in and all doomsayers fully validated. The results are now in. Once again. Focus on the long-term macro picture and think in four-year cycles. The lightning network Going back some years now, 2017 in fact, the Lightning network launched. Blockchains themselves are

18
Jun

G7

Reminder A gentle reminder from Morgan Stanley about where we stand in the current scheme of things. We could perhaps also include the bond market on this chart as well, but ultimately the global M2 money supply is a reasonable long term target for bitcoin. M2 is a measure of the money supply that includes cash,

11
Jun

El Salvador

Bitcoin Miami In perhaps the largest gathering yet of Bitcoin participants, Miami hosted Bitcoin 2021. Over 12,000 tickets were sold for the event (which weren’t cheap at $1,500 – $15,000) so it was incredibly well supported. As with all conferences, it was 90% canapé and hangover with 10% value thrown in. Perhaps the best summary

21
May

Did someone say Elon?

The wrong chart Quite the week. No need for another reminder of how frequently we have these steep pull backs, since we’ve just had one. The situation is adequately described below. For those that don’t know. The term HODL originated in 2013 after bitcoin’s price had crashed 40% to $450. A highly medicated trader typed HODL