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25
Sep

Wrong

Wrong For a change of scenery let’s try some arguments about why our macro-thesis might be wrong. Every week we bang the same drum, well it’s time for a new tune to see how convincing it is. Interest rates Let’s start with interest rates and the 700 year chart below. There is a clearly downward

18
Sep

I’ll wear cashmere and you’ll eat cake

 Debt works You might look around and wonder. I do. Here is Australian retail store Harvey Norman with their latest offer. The offer has some interesting components: No interest for five years. Quite compelling, except that most things Harvey Norman sells will be obsolete in that time. The gift card is worth 5% if you

10
Sep

It’s a Bubble

Bitcoin price falls Cognitive dissonance Thinking one thing, behaving differently, getting stressed as a result I accept and have accepted since I first discovered it, that bitcoin could go to zero. I remind every investor of that possibility. I believe the possibility recedes with time, particularly as the code base ossifies, but it exists as

04
Sep

Reserve Bank ends compound interest

The Reserve Bank this week released their 2020/21 Annual Plan: The Governor confirms the Bank’s continuing commitment to achieving consumer price inflation between 2 and 3 per cent, on average, over time, consistent with its duties under the Reserve Bank Act 1959. Achieving the inflation target preserves the value of money and facilitates strong and sustainable growth in