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Are you paying attention?

PayPal In June this year we wrote about a niche advertisement for a role at PayPal for someone who could program in C+ and had experience in cryptography. You might recall we speculated that PayPal would add bitcoin to its suite of products. There are 325 million active PayPal users worldwide. They aren’t all going

15
Oct

I wish I had….

Start small This is Greg Schoen, with a genuine tweet from 2011. You can look him up on Twitter @GregSchoen. Greg’s 1,700 bitcoins are now worth US$18.5million. He is very open about it in fact. I think he got a good deal. Totally untried technology which back then absolutely nobody had heard of. He had

08
Oct

Unemployment

Whispers in the wind Late last year during an obscure policy discussion in the bowels of the USA, a Federal Reserve governor raised the prospect of an ‘inflation averaging approach’. The idea being that inflation would be allowed to overshoot 2% for a period of time to bring the longer term average back in line.

01
Oct

Paul Keating

Who will win? As far as the our funds are concerned it doesn’t really matter who wins the next US election. Biden would likely outspend Trump initially, so we marginally favour him from a performance perspective. Longer term, no difference. Whoever wins will look to pass a large and popular stimulus bill so we

25
Sep

Wrong

Wrong For a change of scenery let’s try some arguments about why our macro-thesis might be wrong. Every week we bang the same drum, well it’s time for a new tune to see how convincing it is. Interest rates Let’s start with interest rates and the 700 year chart below. There is a clearly downward

18
Sep

I’ll wear cashmere and you’ll eat cake

Debt works You might look around and wonder. I do. Here is Australian retail store Harvey Norman with their latest offer. The offer has some interesting components: No interest for five years. Quite compelling, except that most things Harvey Norman sells will be obsolete in that time. The gift card is worth 5% if you

10
Sep

It’s a Bubble

Bitcoin price falls Cognitive dissonance Thinking one thing, behaving differently, getting stressed as a result I accept and have accepted since I first discovered it, that bitcoin could go to zero. I remind every investor of that possibility. I believe the possibility recedes with time, particularly as the code base ossifies, but it exists as

04
Sep

Reserve Bank ends compound interest

The Reserve Bank this week released their 2020/21 Annual Plan: The Governor confirms the Bank’s continuing commitment to achieving consumer price inflation between 2 and 3 per cent, on average, over time, consistent with its duties under the Reserve Bank Act 1959. Achieving the inflation target preserves the value of money and facilitates strong and sustainable growth in

28
Aug

Jackson Hole

Jackson Hole When is a summit not a summit? I would say, when it’s just a phone call. That’s too hard for our central bankers and not serious or important enough, so they are pretending to go to the Jackson Hole Summit this year by calling it the “Jackson Hole Summit”. In fact, nobody is

20
Aug

A special anniversary

August 15th Last Saturday we reached the 49th anniversary of the collapse of the Bretton Woods monetary system. It was on August 15th 1971 that Richard Nixon confirmed he was “temporarily” closing the gold redemption window. Without the formal anchor of a scarce resource, debt and inflation have run wild since then with the following

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