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Rotten Apple

Denominator Here’s an idea for you. The NAB has published house price data showing an annual increase of 21.6%. That’s 1.6% per month. The average price of a residential property in New South Wales is now $1m (higher in Sydney). Property prices are increasing at about $16,000 per month. The average salary in NSW is

30
Jul

You’re boring

Boring We’ll start this week with a story. A boring story. Years ago I worked with someone who had a mantra. I didn’t like him personally and found the whole thing very annoying. It’s borrowed from Albert Einstein. “if you always do what you always did, you’ll always get what you always got” Whatever we

23
Jul

The network grows, the billionaire blows

User Growth If the bitcoin price is continuing to disappoint short term participants, they should perhaps look to user adoption for comfort. In these log charts (from woobull.com) we can see the start of the previous bear markets in 2011, 2014 and 2018. The pattern this time is different. User growth is going absolutely parabolic.

16
Jul

We did nothing. It’s a triumph.

Overreach There were two instances of institutional overreach this week (more later on the second). The first was the G20, who, at the suggestion of the Americans, have “agreed” that there should be a global minimum tax rate of 15% on companies. Firstly, this is strange because no G20 country has a tax rate that

15
Jul

The Digital Corporation

It’s difficult You will have picked up over the years that people involved in bitcoin are rather anti-government. The source of this really goes to the original design of the network which anticipated that one day (or every day) governments would try to undermine bitcoin to ensure the survival of their own currencies. It was a

02
Jul

Half Time

Half Time After a disastrous first half for us with the sky falling in and all doomsayers fully validated. The results are now in. Once again. Focus on the long-term macro picture and think in four-year cycles. The lightning network Going back some years now, 2017 in fact, the Lightning network launched. Blockchains themselves are

18
Jun

G7

Reminder A gentle reminder from Morgan Stanley about where we stand in the current scheme of things. We could perhaps also include the bond market on this chart as well, but ultimately the global M2 money supply is a reasonable long term target for bitcoin. M2 is a measure of the money supply that includes cash,

11
Jun

El Salvador

Bitcoin Miami In perhaps the largest gathering yet of Bitcoin participants, Miami hosted Bitcoin 2021. Over 12,000 tickets were sold for the event (which weren’t cheap at $1,500 – $15,000) so it was incredibly well supported. As with all conferences, it was 90% canapé and hangover with 10% value thrown in. Perhaps the best summary

04
Jun

As long as we can pay the interest

Joe Biden released details of his first budget on Friday with $6 trillion to be spent in the next year against $4.2 trillion in revenues. Of all the things that stand out in the budget, “only” $300 billion is new spending. The rest of the $1.5 trillion shortfall is consumed in pre-committed programs such as Medicare,

28
May

The Earth is flat

Peak bad news? Having navigated Elon Musk, I had thought there was nobody more prominent that could have an opinion on Bitcoin. I was wrong. This tweet from the Pope was taken as a dig at the protocol and its power consumption. Reading it, it could equally be about aircraft, space travel or formula one cars