Perception At the commencement of the internet did anyone perceive that URLs like google.com would be worth billions of dollars? To begin with google was quite straightforward; a URL and some mathematics that could search the internet. It was very difficult to anticipate at that stage what it would become. Even today, save for their

The time has come Why might the time have come? Because prices are back under control? No! because the labour market is not. The Federal Reserve is not the same as the ECB. Its mandate is twin, prices and employment. I think this critical difference is going to come to the fore over the next

Polymarket Potential investor: “just tell me one thing that has actually worked, that is a viable product, that isn’t bitcoin that’s out there right now, today”. Me: “OK. Polymarket. The largest prediction market in the world“ The styling as a ‘prediction market’ is rather cute. You can open a market on something, price your prediction

The State I have referenced this book a lot, admittedly to mixed feedback. Some of you loved it, plenty of you DNF. Personally, I think it’s aging well on multiple levels. One of which came to mind this week following a tumultuous period in the United Kingdom. One of the tenets of the book is

Safe Haven “and so, it’s become absolutely clear that bitcoin is not a safe haven asset” I was watching Bloomberg on Monday as the Japanese market went into meltdown, completing its worst day since 1987. Some talking head (from an Australian investment firm) popped up and made the declaration about bitcoin. The only place you

Mad to quit So our prediction for a surprise July cut was wrong. “If that test is met, a reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as the next meeting in September.” The ‘test’ is of course inflation versus unemployment. The Federal Reserve, unlike the ECB, is tasked with maintaining

Nobody uses it If we were to ask people if they know about AI, they would say yes. Overwhelmingly, they have used ChatGPT, been moderately impressed, and rarely use it now. To get the best from it requires sustained effort and most people simply will not make any sort of sustained effort to learn a

The price of the ETF And so. We start to see the price of having a bitcoin ETF. Brisbane-based Wallet of Satoshi (WoS) has removed itself from the US App Store. WoS is probably the most successful Australian firm in the entire space with users all over the world. They have done a terrific job

Yellen dances on CZ’s grave The big guns were rolled out in the US late on Tuesday after Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) pleaded guilty to charges of money laundering in the US. On the left, US Attorney General Merrick Garland; the most senior lawyer in the country. Next, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen; the most

A big day Today is the last possible day that the SEC could approve all current Bitcoin ETF applications simultaneously. It arises by virtue of the way the various deadlines roll out, with Hashdex and Franklin hitting their first deadlines (I’ve never heard of them either). This would have the advantage of creating a level